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The Grounds of an Opinion on the Policy of Restricting the Importation of Foreign Corn — обложка книги
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The Grounds of an Opinion on the Policy of Restricting the Importation of Foreign Corn

Автор Thomas Robert Malthus
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Дата написания1970-01-01
Язык книгиen
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Жанры
зарубежная деловая литератураличные финансыотношения с клиентамиценные бумаги / инвестициикниги по экономикезарубежная образовательная литературазарубежная старинная литература

Описание

В книге Мальтус аргументирует необходимость ограничения импорта иностранного зерна, ссылаясь на падение цен, влияние французского законодательства и исторические изменения британского законодательства, чтобы защитить сельское хозяйство и стабилизировать экономику.

Главный конфликт / проблема

Нужно ли ограничивать импорт иностранного зерна, чтобы защитить экономику и сельское хозяйство

Ключевые идеи

  • Низкие цены на зерно приводят к потере сельскохозяйственного капитала и замедлению улучшений.
  • Свободный импорт зерна создаёт ценовые колебания и зависимость от Франции.
  • Ограничения поддерживают отечественное производство, обеспечивают стабильность цен и благосостояние населения.

Вывод

Книга приходит к выводу, что в текущих условиях разумнее поддерживать ограничения, чтобы сохранить независимость от внешних поставок, стабилизировать цены и защитить сельское хозяйство.

Кому полезна

  • Экономисты
  • Политики
  • Сельскохозяйственные специалисты
  • Историки

Главные темы

  • Политика ограничения импорта зерна
  • Экономические риски свободной торговли
  • Влияние цен на зерно на сельское хозяйство и национальный долг

Цитаты

  • «The evidence, which has been laid before Parliament, relating to the effects of the present prices of corn, together with the experience of the present year.»
  • «The fall of prices, which had lately taken place, and the alarm of a still further fall, from continued importation, had not only checked all progress of improvement, but had already occasioned a considerable loss of agricultural advances.»

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4. We now come to a class of society, who will unquestionably be benefited by the opening of our ports. These are the stockholders, and those who live upon fixed salaries.16 They are not only, however, small in number, compared with those who will be affected in a different manner; but their interests are not so closely interwoven with the welfare of the state, as the classes already considered, particularly the labouring classes, and the landlords.

In the Observations, I remarked, that it was 'an error of the most serious magnitude to suppose that any natural or artificial causes, which should raise or lower the values of corn or silver, might be considered as matters of indifference; and that, practically, no material change could take place in the value of either, without producing both temporary and lasting effects, which have a most powerful influence on the distribution of property.'

In fact, it is perfectly impossible to suppose that, in any change in the measure of value, which ever did, or ever can take place practically, all articles, both foreign and domestic, and all incomes, from whatever source derived, should arrange themselves precisely in the same relative proportions as before. And if they do not, it is quite obvious, that such a change may occasion the most marked differences in the command possessed by individuals and classes of individuals over the produce and wealth of the country. Sometimes the changes of this kind that actually take place, are favourable to the industrious classes of society, and sometimes unfavourable.

It can scarcely be doubted, that one of the main causes, which has enabled us hitherto to support, with almost undiminished resources, the prodigious weight of debt which has been accumulated during the last twenty years, is the continued depreciation of the measure in which it has been estimated, and the great stimulus to industry, and power of accumulation, which have been given to the industrious classes of society by the progressive rise of prices. As far as this was occasioned by excessive issues of paper, the stockholder was unjustly treated, and the industrious classes of society benefited unfairly at his expense. But, on the other hand, if the price of corn were now to fall to 50 shillings a quarter, and labour and other commodities nearly in proportion, there can be no doubt that the stockholder would be benefited unfairly at the expense of the industrious classes of society, and consequently at the expense of the wealth and prosperity of the whole country.

During the twenty years, beginning with 1794 and ending with 1813, the average price of British corn per quarter was about eighty-three shillings; during the ten years ending with 1813, ninety-two shillings; and during the last five years of the twenty, one hundred and eight shillings. In the course of these twenty years, the government borrowed near five hundred millions of real capital, for which on a rough average, exclusive of the sinking fund, it engaged to pay about five per cent. But if corn should fall to fifty shillings a quarter, and other commodities in proportion, instead of an interest of about five per cent. the government would really pay an interest of seven, eight, nine, and for the last two hundred millions, ten per cent.

To this extraordinary generosity towards the stockholders, I should be disposed to make no kind of objection, if it were not necessary to consider by whom it is to be paid; and a moment's reflection will shew us, that it can only be paid by the industrious classes of society and the landlords, that is, by all those whose nominal incomes will vary with the variations in the measure of value. The nominal revenues of this part of the society, compared with the average of the last five years, will be diminished one half; and out of this nominally reduced income, they will have to pay the same nominal amount of taxation.

The interest and charges of the national debt, including the sinking fund, are now little short of L40 millions a year; and these L40 millions, if we completely succeed in the reduction of the price of corn and labour, are to be paid in future from a revenue of about half the nominal value of the national income in 1813.

If we consider, with what an increased weight the taxes on tea, sugar, malt, leather, soap, candles, etc., etc. would in this case bear on the labouring classes of society, and what proportion of their incomes all the active, industrious middle orders of the state, as well as the higher orders, must pay in assessed taxes, and the various articles of the customs and excise, the pressure will appear to be absolutely intolerable. Nor would even the ad valorem taxes afford any real relief. The annual fourty millions, must at all events be paid; and if some taxes fail, others must be imposed that will be more productive.

These are considerations sufficient to alarm even the stockholders themselves, indeed, if the measure of value were really to fall, as we have supposed, there is great reason to fear that the country would be absolutely unable to continue the payment of the present interest of the national debt.

I certainly do not think, that by opening our ports to the freest admission of foreign corn, we shall lower the price to fifty shillings a quarter. I have already given my reasons for believing that the fluctuations which in the present state of Europe, a system of importation would bring with it, would be often producing dear years, and throwing us back again upon our internal resources. But still there is no doubt whatever, that a free influx of foreign grain would in all commonly favourable seasons very much lower its price.

Let us suppose it lowered to sixty shillings a quarter, which for periods of three or four years together is not improbable. The difference between a measure of value at 60 compared with 80 (the price at which it is proposed to fix the importation), is 33 1/3 per cent. This percentage upon 40 millions amounts to a very formidable sum. But let us suppose that corn does not effectually regulate the prices of other commodities; and, making allowances on this account, let us take only 25, or even 20 per cent. Twenty per cent. upon 40 millions amounts at once to 8 millions—a sum which ought to go a considerable way towards a peace establishment; but which, in the present case, must go to pay the additional interest of the national debt, occasioned by the change in the measure of value. And even if the price of corn be kept up by restrictions to 80 shillings a quarter, it is certain that the whole of the loans made during the war just terminated, will on an average, be paid at an interest very much higher than they were contracted for; which increased interest can, of course, only be furnished by the industrious classes of society.

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